‘EU aim of 90% European batteries by 2030 is way off’

Can European battery production succeed where the solar industry failed?

German state-backed research body Fraunhofer ISI has published a study into how industry can meet the European Union target of sourcing 90% of its batteries from the bloc by 2030.

“Given the rapid market growth and sharply increasing demand, this goal is in jeopardy,” the researchers wrote.

The researchers used probabilistic modeling to forecast future battery demand, including for electric vehicles, and European manufacturing capacity. Calculations were based on historic automotive industry data, announced battery production capacity plans, and insight into the likelihood of announced factories taking shape. Imponderables, including construction delays, factory utilization rates, and raw material supply were also factored in.

Anticipating European battery cell demand of around 1 TWh in 2030, the Fraunhofer researchers calculated the 90% European Union target would be missed in around half of the scenarios modeled, with European products likely to supply around 50% to 60% of demand.

To ramp up European battery production, the researchers suggested manufacturing capacity be increased, supply chains established, and supportive industrial policy implemented.

The European Union has already taken steps with the publication of its Industrial Action Plan for the European Automotive Sector.

The Fraunhofer researchers said reliable, predictable conditions for the industry and end consumers will be essential.

“Creating a level playing field, through industrial policy measures and requirements for local value creation, or sustainability, is also of great importance,” said study author Steffen Link. “Trade policy measures and industrial policy support should be carefully balanced in order to both promote domestic competitiveness and create opportunities for global cooperation and strategic alliances, rather than fueling trade conflicts.”

The “Feasibility of meeting future battery demand via domestic cell production in Europe” study was published in Nature Energy.

From pv magazine Deutschland.